The race to get to 30% in crowded North Carolina primaries
For a lot of Republican congressional candidates the big test is now, as they scramble to gather enough support in crowded primaries avoid a runoff.
The race to get to 30% in crowded North Carolina primaries
From NC Newsline by: Lynn Bonner
Some voters will see their primary ballots filled with candidates who rushed to run for offices that incumbents are leaving. Sorting through them could be a challenge.
New gerrymandered congressional districts and congressional retirements make it nearly certain that North Carolina Republicans will win 10 seats in November, up from seven.
For a lot of Republican congressional candidates, though, the big test is now, as they scramble to gather enough support in crowded primaries to come out on top with at least 30% of the vote on March 5 to avoid a runoff.
If no primary candidate receives 30%-plus-one, the second-place finisher can ask for a runoff.
Runoffs can be shockers.
Former GOP Congressman Madison Cawthorn won a June 2020 runoff with 65% of the vote over a candidate then-President Donald Trump had endorsed. Cawthorn scored the win after having come in second to the lead vote-getter in that year’s March primary.
This year’s primary candidates are speaking at GOP forums and local Republican meetings, hyping their endorsements, and, if they can afford it, running ads, with the hopes of hitting on the formula that will help them stand out in the crowd.
“That’s a real dilemma for these candidates,” said David McLennan, a political scientist at Meredith College. “In the 6th Congressional District, you have the endorsement of Donald Trump. In many of these races, you don’t have that. When you don’t have anything to differentiate you, it does make it difficult.”
Open seats give hopefuls the best chance
GOP legislators drew congressional districts to elect 10 Republicans and three Democrats. One congressional seat held by an incumbent Democrat is considered a toss-up.
Three Democratic incumbents decided not to run in districts they couldn’t possibly win. Two Republicans are leaving Congress. As a result, North Carolina is likely to send at least four Republicans to Washington next year to serve their first terms in Congress. In one Republican district, a former congressman is running to return to Washington.
The new 13th Congressional District has drawn 14 Republican primary candidates. The 6th and 8th Congressional districts each have a half dozen Republicans running, and the 10th District has five candidates in the GOP primary.
Races without incumbents attract would-be officeholders like magnets. Incumbents tend to be hard to beat and, barring new district boundaries taking them out, many hold onto their seats as long as they want.
“The power of incumbency is so strong that when there’s an open seat people jump,” said Gary Pearce, a former Democratic campaign consultant.
“Once you’re elected to Congress, odds are you’re going to stay as long as you want,” he said. “A congressional seat is a pretty safe place to be.”
The crowded ballots aren’t limited to congressional races. Eleven Republicans are running in the primary for lieutenant governor. Incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is running for governor. North Carolina’s lieutenant governor doesn’t have many duties, but the position is seen as a stepping stone to the governorship. The last 10 lieutenant governors have run for governor. Three went on to win the job.
A viral video of Robinson’s defense of gun rights at a Greensboro City Council meeting helped propel him to victory in the 2020 Republican primary for lieutenant governor, where he won 32% of the vote in a field with nine candidates.
Candidates in this year’s primaries don’t have the benefit of that kind of internet fame.
Six Republicans are running in the primary for state Auditor. GOP interest in the position bloomed after former Democratic Auditor Beth Wood’s hit-and-run accident in December 2022. Wood resigned last year. Gov. Roy Cooper appointed Democrat Jessica Holmes to replace Wood. Holmes is running for election this year. She doesn’t have a primary opponent.
Democrats’ primary ballots aren’t as full as Republicans’.
A few legislative districts have multiple Democratic primary candidates. Each of the two open legislative seats in Democratic-leaning districts has drawn four primary candidates.
Money and endorsements
One clue to who has an edge going into the election comes from looking at who has money to spend on TV, radio, and social media ads.
“Look at who’s got it and who’s spending it,” McLennan said. Campaign cash can pay for a ground game in congressional districts’ key precincts, he said.
The interplay between endorsements, ads, and previous experience is on display in the 6th District. Three of the six candidates have invested in television ads, according to FCC filings.
Mark Walker and Bo Hines have been running ads for weeks. First-time candidate Addison McDowell recently launched an ad.
Walker represented the district in Congress for six years, with his last term ending in 2021. After an unsuccessful run for the U.S. Senate in 2022, he announced his run for governor last year. Walker left that race after the congressional districts were redrawn.
The Club for Growth, a conservative super PAC, is backing Hines. Hines ran two years ago in the 13th District. He won a crowded primary with endorsements from Trump and the Club for Growth PAC but lost the 2022 general election to Democrat Wiley Nickel.
The Club for Growth has also purchased TV time. The group has an ad on its website bashing Walker.
Trump switched his support this year to first-time candidate McDowell.
Ads from both the McDowell and Hines campaigns focus on the southern border. McDowell talks about losing his brother to a fentanyl overdose.
Hines has two shots of Trump, including a photo of Hines and Trump together, each giving a thumbs up.
The winner of the 6th District primary, whether it’s the first or second, will be the automatic winner in November. No other party’s candidates are running.
Important dates for the 2024 primary.
Feb. 15: Early in-person voting begins. People who have not registered can register and vote during the early voting period.
Feb. 27: The last day to request a mail-in absentee ballot.
March 2: Early in-person voting ends.
March 5: Primary day. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 pm.
May 14: Runoffs, if needed.
Unaffiliated voters can vote in either party’s primary.
This article first appeared on NC Newsline and is reprinted under a Creative Commons license.
Cops & Congress by Annie Dance is a service journalism newsletter, focusing on police, policy, and public records in the Lake Lure area of western NC and beyond.
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